The Australian property landscape is entering a new phase following the Federal Government’s announcement of sweeping changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax (CGT). While much of the national commentary has focused on whether these reforms will make housing more affordable, the more relevant question for Tasmanian property owners is this: what do these changes actually mean for our market?

At its core, the government’s intention is to rebalance the housing market, shifting the advantage away from investors and toward owner-occupiers, particularly first home buyers. Negative gearing will now be restricted to newly built homes, removing a long-standing tax benefit for investors purchasing established properties. At the same time, the current 50% capital gains tax discount will be replaced from July 2027 with a model that taxes gains above inflation, with a minimum 30% tax rate applied. Together, these changes reduce the tax-driven appeal of property investment and encourage a greater focus on fundamentals.

A More Balanced Tasmanian Market

For Tasmania, the impact is not expected to be dramatic—but it is meaningful.

The most noticeable shift will occur in entry-level price brackets, where investors and first home buyers have traditionally competed most heavily. As investor advantages reduce, we are likely to see:

• Less aggressive competition at the lower end of the market
• More opportunities for owner-occupiers to secure property
• A moderation in price growth rather than a decline in values

Importantly, this does not signal a downturn. Instead, it reflects a transition toward a more balanced and sustainable market environment. Demand remains strong across Tasmania, supported by lifestyle appeal, population movement, and ongoing supply constraints.

Why Strategy Now Matters More Than Ever

One of the most important shifts coming out of these reforms is not about price—it’s about how property is sold.

In a market where:

• Investor activity may soften slightly
• Buyers become more selective
• Competition is less automatic

…the difference between an average result and a premium result will be driven by execution.

This means:

• Accurate pricing is critical
• Strong presentation is essential
• Marketing strategy must create competition

The “list and wait” approach that worked during peak market conditions is being replaced by a more deliberate, strategy-led sales process.

Ongoing Pressure in the Rental Market

While the reforms aim to improve access to home ownership, they also introduce another dynamic: reduced investor participation over time.

In a state like Tasmania—where rental supply is already tight—this is likely to place continued pressure on rental availability and pricing. As fewer investors enter the market, fewer rental properties are created, reinforcing the importance of supply in driving long-term stability.

 

Understanding the Capital Gains Shift

The change to capital gains tax is particularly important in shaping future investor behaviour.

Under the current system, investors receive a blanket 50% discount on profits when selling assets held for more than 12 months. Under the new model, tax will instead apply only to the “real gain” above inflation, with a minimum 30% rate.

In simple terms:

Property investment becomes less about tax efficiency and more about genuine performance.

This subtle but important shift reduces speculative behaviour and encourages a more measured, long-term approach to property investment.

The Key Takeaway for Tasmanian Property Owners

The message for property owners and sellers across Tasmania is clear:

The market is not weakening—it is becoming more selective.

Well-positioned properties—those that are priced accurately, presented to a high standard, and brought to market with a clear strategy—will continue to achieve strong outcomes.

At the same time, the gap between well-executed campaigns and average listings is expected to widen.

Looking Ahead

Over the next 12–24 months, the Tasmanian property market is expected to:

• Remain stable overall
• Shift toward owner-occupier-driven demand
• Reward strategic, data-driven approaches to selling

For buyers, the playing field may become more balanced.
For investors, the lens becomes more focused.
And for sellers, the opportunity remains—but requires the right approach.

A Roberts Perspective

At Roberts Real Estate, we view these changes not as a disruption, but as an evolution.

Markets change. Policy shifts.
But success continues to come down to understanding buyer behaviour, interpreting market conditions, and applying the right strategy at the right time.

If you are considering selling or simply want to understand what these changes mean for your property, now is the time to have that conversation.

Roberts Real Estate
Understanding Tasmania. Delivering results.